The Party’s Still On

Everyone loves a good “doom” narrative especially when it comes with a whiff of moral superiority. Scroll LinkedIn for five minutes and you’ll find a predictable refrain: “The next generation doesn’t drink. Alcohol is over. The future is adaptogenic.”

Cute story, except the math doesn’t add up.

In reality, the adult beverage category isn’t crashing. It’s actively reinventing itself and growing stronger for it. Look beyond surface-level volume dips, and there’s an industry quietly transforming through premiumization, moderation-minded innovation, and smart portfolio diversification.

Let’s pour one out for the “alcohol is dying” myth, and toast to the five big reasons the industry is actually thriving.

Global Alcohol Is Growing, Just Differently

Here’s the truth that headlines miss: the global alcoholic beverage industry's value is still climbing at a compound annual rate of about 6.6% through 2030, according to Grand View Research and IWSR data.theiwsr+1​

That’s not stagnation, that’s peaceful, sustained growth built on smarter pricing, stronger brands, and better storytelling.

Developing markets like India, Brazil, South Africa, and Vietnam are fueling the next wave of expansion, while the U.S. continues to hold steady in value even as volumes normalize. What you’re seeing isn’t decline, it’s segmentation. Mature drinkers are trading up, while new consumers in emerging markets are trading in.theiwsr+1​

The RTD Boom Still Has Gas and It’s Reshaping Retail

If you were betting against ready-to-drinks (RTDs), you’ve already lost.

In 2025, spirits-based RTDs hit $2.7 billion, nearly triple their 2021 market value, according to NIQ and The Spirits Business. Compared to declining malt RTDs, spirits-based products are driving nearly all of the segment’s growth up a staggering 19.6% in 2025 revenue alone.thespiritsbusiness+1​

Policy changes are supercharging this momentum. States like Texas, Alabama, Michigan, and Florida have loosened retail restrictions, allowing spirits-based RTDs into more grocery and convenience stores.ohbev​

That’s an underappreciated revolution: for the first time, a consumer can buy a 10% ABV canned cocktail next to a seltzer. The convenience and quality gap that once existed? Closed.

What that means strategically: every shelf reset and convenience door that opens to spirits RTDs widens the total beverage pie. The brands getting this right, from Cutwater and High Noon to emerging indie labels, aren’t selling trends. They’re selling occasions.

Premiumization Is Still the Quiet Engine

Everyone’s obsessed with “less but better,” but too many underestimate what “better” really means.

This shift isn’t just about price. It’s about meaning. Drinkers want craftsmanship, transparency, and a story behind the flavor.

In 2025, premium-and-above volume rose another 3% globally despite inflation pressure. Why? Because the category has matured from indulgence to identity. A decade ago, “premium” meant a higher price tag. Today it means alignment — brand, values, and experience all connecting through a shared narrative.wine-intelligence+1​

From mezcal producers embracing regenerative agave farming to whiskey distilleries launching transparent ingredient sourcing maps, premiumization has morphed into a philosophy of intent. People are spending less often, but when they do, they’re investing in what their drink says about them.

In tequila alone, the premium tier ($30 and above) is projected to grow 8% annually through 2028, with super-premium labels outperforming the broader spirits market.theabcstore​

Premiumization isn’t a bubble. It’s the baseline.

“Moderation” Is a Market Expansion Strategy

Here’s a hot take: moderation isn’t a threat. It’s a new growth funnel.

According to IWSR, no/low-alcohol beverages are growing at a global 4% CAGR through 2028 and generating $4 billion in incremental value, half of which comes from consumers who still drink alcohol. In other words, moderation doesn’t mean abstinence, it means participation in new ways.sustainalytics+1​

Consumers aren’t quitting booze. They’re curating it to fit more moments of their lives. And smart brands are helping them do it.

Functional cocktails are bridging this divide, think adaptogenic spritzes, CBD-infused coolers, or electrolyte-spiked RTDs. Low-alc and no-alc are not subcategories; they’re new entry points into a broader beverage identity that includes mind, body, and community.

As one IWSR analyst put it: “Moderation has gone mainstream. And the brands treating it like a fad will miss the next decade of growth.”

Innovation and Functionality Drive Fresh Loyalty

In 2025, innovation has finally exited the lab and entered the lifestyle.

From botanical vodkas to gut-health aperitifs, consumers are looking for enhanced experiences, either through flavor exploration or functional benefit. In this climate, “buzz” isn’t the only selling point anymore. It’s how the drink makes you feel overall,  physically, socially, even emotionally.weitnauer​

Digitalization is fueling this too. Direct-to-consumer channels, online tasting communities, and creator-led cocktail culture are reshaping how discovery happens. Nearly 35% of millennials and Gen Z consumers report trying a new drink because of Instagram or TikTok exposure.circana​

In the bar world, spirits are still king. Over 52% of on-premise drinkers now choose spirits when out, with one in three ordering a cocktail. Bars aren’t dead, they’re evolving into hybrid community spaces built on inclusivity, smart menus, and discovery moments.cgastrategy​

The brands thriving in this ecosystem aren’t just producing liquid; they’re hosting connection.

Sustainability Is Now a Selling Point

Forget lip service, sustainability has become a competitive advantage.

Distilleries are racing toward carbon neutrality, and packaging innovation is exploding. Refillable flasks, compostable caps, and recyclable pouches are not marketing fluff anymore, they’re market demand.weitnauer​

Brands like Patrón, Grey Goose, and Glenmorangie are experimenting with regenerative practices, while smaller producers are educating consumers on traceable sourcing. The consumer expectation has shifted from “eco-friendly” to “ethically inevitable.”

This matters for growth because sustainability supports premium positioning. Better materials and processes now directly drive consumer trust and willingness to pay.

Consumers Haven’t Checked Out, They’ve Opted In

Despite all the noise around sobriety culture and Dry January, the beverage economy keeps growing. NielsenIQ’s mid-year data shows U.S. beverage spending up 4.4% year-to-date, driven by RTDs and premium spirits.nielseniq​

What’s really happening is a redefinition of occasion. Drinks now compete less with one another and more with everything else that represents human enjoyment. Entertainment, travel, and wellness all intersect here. The “experience economy” didn’t end drinking; it reframed it.

So, Is Alcohol Dying? Not Even Close.

Let’s set the record straight:

• Gen Z isn’t anti-alcohol, they’re anti-bad-alcohol.

• Millennials aren’t abandoning booze, they’re curating it to match life stages.

• Boomers aren’t irrelevant, they’re quietly underpinning premium growth.

The only thing dying is blanket strategy. The brands trying to copy 2015 playbooks are struggling; the ones building for 2030 are thriving.

Opinion: The Party’s Smarter Now

So yes, the party’s still on. It just looks different.
Less volume, more value.
Fewer hangovers, more meaning.
And for the first time in a century, an industry that once sold indulgence is starting to sell intention.

That’s the real story investors and operators should be celebrating. Not the decline of drinking, but the rise of discernment.

The next decade belongs to brands that act like educators, not advertisers; to retailers who rethink convenience as connection; and to producers who build communities, not commodities.

The industry isn’t crashing, it’s maturing. And for anyone building in beverage right now, that’s the best kind of buzz imaginable.

Sources and Resources

·  IWSR Five Key Trends Shifting the Beverage Alcohol Market in 2025 https://www.theiwsr.com/insight/five-key-trends-shifting-the-beverage-alcohol-market-in-2025

·  IWSR Global Trends Report 2025 https://www.theiwsr.com

·  NIQ The Fourth Category Mid-Year Update https://nielseniq.com

·  The Spirits Business Spirits-Based RTDs Surpass $2.7B https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com

·  OH Bev RTD Market 2025 Forecast and Trends https://www.ohbev.com

·  Felene Vodka Q3 2025 Alcohol Trend Report https://www.felenevodka.com

·  Alchemist Beverage Co. Top Liquor Trends 2025 https://www.theabcstore.com

·  CGA Strategy Five Consumer On-Premise Trends 2025 https://cgastrategy.com

·  Penn State Alcoholic Beverage Trends 2025 https://extension.psu.edu

·  Sustainalytics The Rise of No- and Low-Alcohol https://www.sustainalytics.com

·  Weitnauer Research Global Spirits 2025 Trends https://weitnauer.com